on the use of arima models for short term water tank levels forecasting

Abstract In this paper a statistical study on the time series of water levels measured, during 2014, in the water tank of Cesine, Avellino (Italy), is presented. In particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting methodology is applied to model and forecast the daily water levels. This technique combines the autoregression and the moving average approaches, with the possibility to differentiate the data, to make the series stationary. In order to better describe the trend, over time, of the water levels in the reservoir, three ARIMA models are calibrated, validated and compared: ARIMA (2,0,2), ARIMA (3,1,3), ARIMA (6,1,6). After a preliminary statistical characterization of the series, the models' parameters are calibrated on the data related to the first 11 months of 2014, in order to keep the last month of data for validating the results. For each model, a graphical comparison with the observed data is presented, together with the calculation of the summary statistics of the residuals and of some error metrics. The results are discussed and some further possible applications are highlighted in the conclusions

Wheat bran promotes enrichment within the human colonic microbiota of butyrate-producing bacteria that release ferulic acid

This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. Acknowledgements: The authors acknowledge support from the Scottish Government Food Land and People programme (RESAS). We would like to thank Lorraine Scobbie and Gary Duncan for technical support. Funding for JP, AWW and 454 pyrosequencing was provided by the Wellcome Trust (grant number 098051).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Toward molecular wires confined in zeolite channels for an effective transport of electronic excitation energy.

Sunlight is the fundamental energy source sustaining life on Earth. Green plants are provided of very sophisticated and highly efficient tools to exploit light, they are able to harvest sunlight and to transport electronic excitation energy by means of a particular “antenna system” to reaction centres (natural photosynthesis). The antenna consists of regular arrangements of chlorophyll molecules held at fixed positions by means of proteins. Light absorbed by any of these molecules is transported - by radiationless energy transfer (FRET) - to reaction centres, providing the energy necessary for the chemical processes to be initiated. A green leaf consists of millions of such well-organized antenna devices. A long-standing challenge has been the development of an artificial system able to mimic the photosynthetic system. Artificial antenna systems can be realized once several organized chromophores are able to absorb the incident light and to channel the excitation energy to a common acceptor component1-3. Artificial antenna can be built by incorporating dyes into the one-dimensional channels of zeolite L (ZL). ZL crystals feature strictly parallel nano sized channels arranged in hexagonal symmetry. These channels can be filled with high concentration of suitable guests. The geometric constraints imposed by the host structure allow achieving supramolecular organization of photoactive guests1. It has been shown2,that the properties of the dye-ZL systems depend on the molecular packing inside the channels, controlling the intermolecular and the dyes/framework interactions In this work we presents a study on the optical properties of a two –dyes antenna system in which fluorenone molecules (donor molecule) and thionine(acceptor molecule) are organized in Zeolite L porosities. To interpret the optical properties of the hybrids a detailed structural study at atomistic level was mandatory. Due to the impossibility of studying from the structural point of view a two –dyes systems, two “one-dye” hybrids (ZL/fluorenone and ZL/thionine) were firstly synthesized and characterized to investigate the intermolecular and the dyes/framework interactions4. The results of thermogravimetric, IR, and X-ray structural refinements carried out for the one-dye system ZL/FL established that 1.5 molecules per unit cell is the maximum FL loading , in contrast with the data reported previously in literature5 and that the FL carbonyl group strong interact with a K+ of the ZL. The FL distribution at maximum loading can be consider as a self-assembly of planar dye molecules into a noncovalent nanoladder. FL molecules organized in such a single, continuous nanostructure of dye molecules did not exhibit significant electronic interactions. Indeed, both absorption (recorded in the diffuse reflectance mode) and photoemission electronic spectra of ZL/FL systems with different FL loading scaled almost linearly in intensity with the amount dye hosted in the unit cell (ranging from 0.5 to 1.5), without significant changes of the spectral profiles. Noticeably, the combination and steady state and time resolved photoluminescence data indicated that even at the maximum loading ca. 90% of FL molecules are photoluminescent, with significant increase in the average quantum yield with respect to FL molecules in solution. Such a finding clearly indicates that excited states coupling (Davydov splitting) is not contributing to the optical properties of the material. The structural study of the ZL/TH system revealed that the maximum possible loading of TH is equal to 0.3 molecules per unit cell in agreement with the TGA and literature data6. Short distances between the carbon, sulfur and nitrogen atoms and two water molecule sites , in turn at bond distance from the oxygen atoms of the main channel, suggested a water-mediated Th-ZL interactions7. Moreover, IR spectroscopy provided evidence of the interaction of the aromatic rings with the environment. This likely resulted in an increase of the rate of non-radiative decay of Th molecules in the electronic excited state, because only ca. 5% of Th molecules hosted in the ZL channel appeared photoluminescent. The occurrence of energy transfer from excited FL molecules forming the noncovalent nanoladder in the ZL channels and Th, in the ground state, deposited on the external surface of ZL particles are currently under investigation. In conclusion, we have here presented a study on the physico-chemical properties of dense molecular wires encapsulated in the one-dimensional pores arrays of Zeolite L. Concerning the optical properties of our composites, no evidence of Davydov splitting emerged from our study, indicating that one of the main competitors of the FRET mechanism is not operative notwithstanding the close packed arrangement of FL. We believe that this feature is of overwhelming relevance in view of application of such a system in artificial antenna systems

Molecular wires confined in zeolite L channels for an effective transport of electronic excitation energy: a synchrotron structural study.

Sunlight is the fundamental energy source sustaining life on Earth. Green plants are provided of very sophisticated and highly efficient tools to exploit light, they are able to harvest sunlight and to transport electronic excitation energy by means of a particular \u201cantenna system\u201d to reaction centers (natural photosynthesis).The development of an artificial system able to mimic the natural phenomenon has been a long-standing challenge. Artificial antenna systems can be realized once several organized chromophores are able to absorb the incident light and to channel the excitation energy to a common acceptor component [1-3]. The optical properties of the systems depend on the molecular packing inside the channels. Artificial antenna can be built by incorporating suitable guests into the one-dimensional channels of zeolite L (ZL). In this work we present a detailed structural study of two hybrid systems in which dyes (fluorenone and thionine) are encapsulated in zeolite L channels. These two molecules were chosen since it has been demonstrated that a \u201ctwo \u2013dyes antenna system\u201d - in which fluorenone (FL) (donor molecule) and thionine (Th) (acceptor molecule) are organized in Zeolite L porosities - shows remarkable optical properties. Due to the impossibility of studying, from the structural point of view a \u201ctwo \u2013dyes systems\u201d, two \u201cone-dye\u201d hybrids (ZL/fluorenone and ZL/thionine) were firstly synthesized and characterized [4]. The results of thermogravimetric, IR, and X-ray structural refinements carried out for the one-dye ZL/FL and ZL/Th systems established that 1.5 molecules of FL and 0.3 molecules of Th per unit cell is the maximum loading, respectively. The FL carbonyl group strong interacts with a K+ of the ZL. On the other hand, short distances between the carbon, sulfur and nitrogen atoms of Th and two water molecule sites, in turn at bond distance from the oxygen atoms of the main channel, suggested a water-mediated Th-ZL interactions. The energy transfer from excited FL molecules, forming the non-covalent nano-ladder in the ZL channel, and Th, deposited on the external surface of ZL particles, is currently under investigation. In conclusion concerning the optical properties of our composites, no evidence of Davydov splitting emerged from our study, indicating that one of the main competitors of the FRET mechanism is not operative notwithstanding the close packed arrangement of FL. We believe that this feature is of overwhelming relevance in view of application of such a system in artificial antenna devices. The authors acknowledge the Italian Ministry of Education, MIUR-Project: \u201cFuturo in Ricerca 2012 - ImPACT- RBFR12CLQD\u201d

Dye Loading influence on performances of Fluorenone/zeoliteL Light Harvester

Zeolite L (LTL), is an appealing and excellent host for the supramolecular organization of different kinds of molecules and complexes. However, relatively few experimental structural information is available about the orientation and alignment of the dye molecules in the zeolite pores. Hence, a detailed structural characterization is of great importance for understanding the functionality of these host-guest systems. Between all the possible guests, neutral dye fluorenone (C13H8O) (FL) has received a considerable attention [1,2] because of its ability to form a host-guest complex with LTL, stable if exposed at the atmosphere. Moreover, the fluorescent nature of fluorenone makes this complex interesting as a component of the energy relay system in artificial antennas. Although a detailed structural characterization is still lacking, theoretical studies have shown as the orientation of fluorenone is especially interesting as it is directly related to the light harvesting properties of fluorenone [3]. Moreover, it has shown as the presence of water can influence on the electronic spectra of this host-guest complex and then affect its performances as light harvester [3]. In this study, three different FL/K-LTL materials characterized by an increasing loading of FL have been synthesized by mixing in inert atmosphere the dehydrated K-LTL and FL powder in ratio of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 molecules/unit cell, and then heating the samples at 120°C in air for 24 h. The vials were maintained under continuous rotation during the heating in order to optimize the contact between the zeolite and the dye. The samples so obtained were characterized by means of X-ray powder diffraction, thermo-gravimetric analysis, IR and UV-vis spectroscopies, fluorescence and nitrogen adsorption. The incorporation of FL into the K-LTL channels was confirmed by a significant change of the unit cell parameters and by drastic decrease in the K-LTL surface area also at low FL loading. The strong interaction between FL carbonyl group and the extraframework potassium cation predicted by theoretical modelling [1] was confirmed by the short bond distances (2.77 Å), evidenced in the Rietveld refined structure, and by the shift of the C=O stretching frequency evidenced in the IR spectra. Such an interaction explains why FL is not displaced by water molecules when FL/K-LTL hybrid is re-exposed to the air [1]. Interestingly, although the UV-vis absorption spectrum was almost unaffected by the FL loading, the corresponding emission spectrum evidenced a strong influence: the optimum FL/K-LTL ratio was then determined in order to optimize the performances of the device as light harvester. The structural information obtained theoretically and from XRD allowed also to explain the loading dependence of the optical properties of the material and to correlate it with the relative orientation of the fluorenone molecules in the zeolite channels

Quantifying garnet-melt trace element partitioning using lattice-strain theory: New crystal-chemical and thermodynamic constraints

Many geochemical models of major igneous differentiation events on the Earth, the Moon, and Mars invoke the presence of garnet or its high-pressure majoritic equivalent as a residual phase, based on its ability to fractionate critical trace element pairs (Lu/Hf, U/Th, heavy REE/light REE). As a result, quantitative descriptions of mid-ocean ridge and hot spot magmatism, and lunar, martian, and terrestrial magma oceans require knowledge of garnet-melt partition coefficients over a wide range of conditions. In this contribution, we present new crystal-chemical and thermodynamic constraints on the partitioning of rare earth elements (REE), Y and Sc between garnet and anhydrous silicate melt as a function of pressure (P), temperature (T), and composition (X). Our approach is based on the interpretation of experimentally determined values of partition coefficients D using lattice-strain theory. In this and a companion paper (Draper and van Westrenen this issue) we derive new predictive equations for the ideal ionic radius of the dodecahedral garnet X-site,

Search for Branons at LEP

We search, in the context of extra-dimension scenarios, for the possible existence of brane fluctuations, called branons. Events with a single photon or a single Z-boson and missing energy and momentum collected with the L3 detector in e^+ e^- collisions at centre-of-mass energies sqrt{s}=189-209$ GeV are analysed. No excess over the Standard Model expectations is found and a lower limit at 95% confidence level of 103 GeV is derived for the mass of branons, for a scenario with small brane tensions. Alternatively, under the assumption of a light branon, brane tensions below 180 GeV are excluded

Study of Spin and Decay-Plane Correlations of W Bosons in the e+e- -> W+W- Process at LEP

Data collected at LEP at centre-of-mass energies \sqrt(s) = 189 - 209 GeV are used to study correlations of the spin of W bosons using e+e- -> W+W- -> lnqq~ events. Spin correlations are favoured by data, and found to agree with the Standard Model predictions. In addition, correlations between the W-boson decay planes are studied in e+e- -> W+W- -> lnqq~ and e+e- -> W+W- -> qq~qq~ events. Decay-plane correlations, consistent with zero and with the Standard Model predictions, are measured

Search for Branons at LEP

We search, in the context of extra-dimension scenarios, for the possible existence of brane fluctuations, called branons. Events with a single photon or a single Z-boson and missing energy and momentum collected with the L3 detector in e^+ e^- collisions at centre-of-mass energies sqrt{s}=189-209$ GeV are analysed. No excess over the Standard Model expectations is found and a lower limit at 95% confidence level of 103 GeV is derived for the mass of branons, for a scenario with small brane tensions. Alternatively, under the assumption of a light branon, brane tensions below 180 GeV are excluded

Ultrarelativistic sources in nonlinear electrodynamics

The fields of rapidly moving sources are studied within nonlinear electrodynamics by boosting the fields of sources at rest. As a consequence of the ultrarelativistic limit the delta-like electromagnetic shock waves are found. The character of the field within the shock depends on the theory of nonlinear electrodynamics considered. In particular, we obtain the field of an ultrarelativistic charge in the Born-Infeld theory.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure